基于GIS的盐城国家级自然保护区生态安全评价（英文）     

李海萍  高戈  李菁 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(1):38-49

本研究利用遥感和GIS技术,分析盐城自然保护区1983–2018年的景观格局变化,建立了基于区域自然-社会-经济复合生态系统安全格局的评价指标体系,分析了生态安全变化的空间特征和成因。结果表明,1983–2018年由于人类活动加剧,研究区内景观格局变化强烈,从以自然景观为主发展到自然景观与人工景观并存。在整体生态安全方面,目前保护区的生态安全状况不容乐观,从保护区丹顶鹤的生存状态看,保护区总体上还是适宜丹顶鹤栖息的,但由于人类活动的增加以及政策的调整,丹顶鹤的栖息地呈现破碎化并向核心区和缓冲区等局部区域聚集。我们应从管理、政策制定以及当地居民的环境保护意识上增加宣传和投入,并相应减少保护区内人类活动的强度。  相似文献   

Gully erosion spatial modelling: Role of machine learning algorithms in selection of the best controlling factors and modelling process     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(6):2207-2219

This investigation assessed the efficacy of 10 widely used machine learning algorithms (MLA) comprising the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), generalized linear model (GLM), stepwise generalized linear model (SGLM), elastic net (ENET), partial least square (PLS), ridge regression, support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression trees (CART), bagged CART, and random forest (RF) for gully erosion susceptibility mapping (GESM) in Iran. The location of 462 previously existing gully erosion sites were mapped through widespread field investigations, of which 70% (323) and 30% (139) of observations were arbitrarily divided for algorithm calibration and validation. Twelve controlling factors for gully erosion, namely, soil texture, annual mean rainfall, digital elevation model (DEM), drainage density, slope, lithology, topographic wetness index (TWI), distance from rivers, aspect, distance from roads, plan curvature, and profile curvature were ranked in terms of their importance using each MLA. The MLA were compared using a training dataset for gully erosion and statistical measures such as RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (mean absolute error), and R-squared. Based on the comparisons among MLA, the RF algorithm exhibited the minimum RMSE and MAE and the maximum value of R-squared, and was therefore selected as the best model. The variable importance evaluation using the RF model revealed that distance from rivers had the highest significance in influencing the occurrence of gully erosion whereas plan curvature had the least importance. According to the GESM generated using RF, most of the study area is predicted to have a low (53.72%) or moderate (29.65%) susceptibility to gully erosion, whereas only a small area is identified to have a high (12.56%) or very high (4.07%) susceptibility. The outcome generated by RF model is validated using the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve approach, which returned an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.985, proving the excellent forecasting ability of the model. The GESM prepared using the RF algorithm can aid decision-makers in targeting remedial actions for minimizing the damage caused by gully erosion.  相似文献   

基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

曹祺文  鲍超  顾朝林  管卫华 《地理研究》2019,38(1):167-180

中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学（system dynamics,SD）模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明：① 系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。② 部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。③ 在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿 m³水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。  相似文献   

Farmland Abandonment Research Progress: Influencing Factors and Simulation Model     

SONG Wei  ZHANG Ying 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(4):345-352

Farmland abandonment is a global problem and considered one of the most important areas in land use change research. Farmland abandonment research currently focuses on understanding the factors that affect farmland abandonment and developing scientific models to simulate farmland abandonment. The study reviewed the natural and political factors driving farmland abandonment and summarized the main models for farmland abandonment simulation together with their advantages and disadvantages. We discuss the main ecological effects of farmland abandonment and propose farmland abandonment research directions. The study found that: (1) the influence of labor cost change and ageing labor force on farmland abandonment needs further investigation, (2) simulation models for farmland abandonment must include the decision-making mechanism of individual farmers and focus on macro large-scale abandonment prediction models, and (3) the influence of farmland abandonment on landscape culture must be investigated in detail.  相似文献   

不同顶管组合方式的管幕冻结温度场模型试验   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

段寅  荣传新  程桦  蔡海兵  解德柱  丁杨龙 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):479-490

拱北隧道作为港珠澳大桥珠海连接线的关键性工程， 在国内外首次成功运用了管幕冻结技术。以此为背景， 为更加全面地掌握饱和软土地层中管幕冻结温度场的分布特点， 开展了不同顶管组合方式下的管幕冻结温度场模型试验研究。试验结果表明： 各测点温度曲线在积极冻结期前4 h急剧下降， 随后逐渐减缓， 降至砂土冰点后趋于平稳， 三种布管方式均满足冻结设计要求； 冻结管中低温盐水提供的冷量首先传递给顶管管壁， 再以“面”的形式均匀地传递给周围土体； 积极冻结21 h后， 采用四根空顶管组合的C区冻结壁竖向范围最大， 空管管壁正上方冻结壁平均厚度约为105 mm， 在满足管幕刚度设计要求的前提下， 可采此布管方式以达到快速形成冻结帷幕的目的。限位管开启后的4 h内， 实顶管中线垂直距离100 mm范围内测点温度曲线虽有明显回升但仍维持在冻土冰点以下， 超出此范围后温度变化影响逐渐减弱， 且顶管间冻结壁稳定存在， 表明限位管在满足管间有效封水的条件下， 能在一定范围内起到定向限制地层冻胀的作用。优化后的双圆形冻结管在满足冻结设计要求的同时， 更加便于安装且经济环保。  相似文献   

大孔隙对径流过程影响的研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

吕海深 《水文》2020,40(1):13-17

大孔隙流是土壤优先流的一种,在植被发育区土壤大孔隙比较常见,对径流形成过程产生重要的影响。介绍了大孔隙流的研究方法,系统总结了近50年植被发育区土壤大孔隙对降雨入渗过程及径流形成过程的影响:从水分入渗的角度,大孔隙可以加快降雨入渗过程;由土壤大孔隙流与山坡产流的关系,大孔隙促进了边坡雨水的运动进而引起了快速产流;世界范围内的研究都表明土壤管流或大孔隙流是径流组分重要贡献者。  相似文献   

隧道工程地震易损性分析研究综述与展望          下载免费PDF全文

吴桥  程永志  黄超 《世界地震工程》2020,(2):191-199

易损性分析是隧道工程领域防震减灾研究的重要方法。首先,详细综述了国内外隧道地震易损性研究历史与现状;其次,归纳了国内外隧道地震易损性分析主要方法,并总结了各种方法的实际适用性;接着,提出了隧道地震易损性评估步骤,并且讨论了以数值模拟为主要手段的理论易损性曲线建立中的3个关键内容:(1)输入参数确定;(2)破坏状态分级;(3)相关不确定性参数计算;最后,指出该领域一些亟待解决的问题和未来研究发展的方向。结果表明:隧道地震易损性分析能通过考虑相关不确定性因素,反映了隧道在地震荷载作用下的性能,有利于未来的风险评估和损失估算,对基于性能的隧道抗震设计的发展具有重要意义。  相似文献   

开挖前降水引发基坑变形机制模型试验研究     

曾超峰  薛秀丽  宋伟炜  李淼坤  白宁 《岩土力学》2020,41(9):2963-2972

现有基坑相关研究主要关注土方开挖过程引起的变形，认为围护结构变形起点是土方第1次开挖。然而，一些工程实测表明，基坑开挖前降水阶段即可引起围护结构及周边地层发生厘米级的变形。显然，未考虑开挖前变形的基坑监测数据将低估基坑施工的环境效应。为了研究基坑开挖前降水引发基坑变形的机制，开展了室内模型试验，对基坑开挖前降水过程进行了缩尺精细化模拟。通过微型降水井的设置与调控，模型试验真实再现了实际基坑降水过程中井流效应对围护结构受力变形的影响。试验过程中发现，随着降水的进行，坑外降水漏斗不断扩展，围护结构悬臂式侧移及坑外拱肩式地面沉降也随之产生。另外，降水导致墙前水压力明显减小，并诱发墙前侧向总压力重分布（以减小为主），围护结构为此发生指向坑内的悬臂式运动以寻求新的受力平衡，并通过墙后土体损失诱发坑外地层变形。  相似文献   

Modelling the poroelastoplastic behaviour of soils subjected to internal erosion by suffusion     

Quentin Rousseau  Giulio Sciarra  Rachel Gelet  Didier Marot 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(1):117-136

Granular soils subjected to seepage flow may suffer suffusion, ie, a selective internal erosion. Extending the classical approach of poromechanics, we deduce a new form of the Clausius-Duhem inequality accounting for dissipation due to suffusion, and we deduce restrictions on the constitutive laws of the soil. We suggest (a) a possible coupling between the seepage forces and the suffusion kinetics and (b) an extension of an existing elastoplastic model for the skeleton mechanical behaviour. Numerical integrations of the elastoplastic model are carried out under drained axisymmetric triaxial and oedometric conditions. As a result, we prove that the extended model is able to qualitatively reproduce the suffusion induced strains and the strength reduction experimentally observed. Predictions on the oedometric behaviour of suffusive soils are also provided.  相似文献   

非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定          下载免费PDF全文

秦建国 《水文》2020,40(1):23-28

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。  相似文献